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Multi-Asset Insights

Strategic Forum Series
12 diciembre 2023
    Artículos
    Descargar el documento completoPDF, 4MB

    Introduction

    As detailed in our 2024 Outlook, we are entering a new paradigm that we expect to pose challenges to both equity returns and the reliability of traditional diversifiers. We see thematic investing as an idiosyncrasy to exploit within asset allocations, and discuss this in the first section of this publication.

    In a new regime – that changes risk and return dynamics – we also expect asset allocators will need to explore more granular allocation considerations to generate returns. This is especially true across Asia. The region offers a very heterogeneous universe and our view is that only a more granular approach can generate the desired exposure to relevant opportunities. In the second section of this publication, we detail how adopting a rules-based tactical asset allocation strategy can support accessing those opportunities on a systematic basis – while maintaining portfolio risk-budgets.

    Intelligent diversification through thematics

    • We think sources of intelligent diversification will be needed as part of a new investment paradigm that looks very different to the secular stagnation of the 2010s.
    • Allocating to thematic investments may support the goal of delivering returns while providing diversification benefits through a unique return profile, if approached in a structured manner that reduces downside risks.
    • Our analysis shows alpha delivered in the past performance of themes that cannot be fully explained by inherent style factor, sector or country biases. Outperformance is inconsistent across themes but demonstrates that theme exposure is more than simply a factor or sector play.
    • Implemented in a thoughtful way, thematics can provide intelligent diversification both for the cyclical investment horizon and medium-term regime change underway.

    Tactical allocation in Asia: Using a systematic approach

    • Empirical evidence indicates that adopting a rules-based tactical asset allocation strategy can allow investors to take advantage of market situations within a well-defined risk budget, on a systematic basis.
    • Our research shows that an equally weighted composite signal can effectively mitigate the drawbacks of using individual signals while generating higher alpha.
    • Implementing a tactical allocation strategy can also improve risk-adjusted return profiles against a buy and hold strategy.
    • Furthermore, a disciplined, multi-signal based framework for both directional asset allocation and relative value ideas enables asset allocators to cover a broad and granular investment universe.

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