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Investment Monthly June 2023

June Jitters
02 junio 2023
    Artículos
    Descargar el documento completoPDF, 4.65MB

    Key takeaways:

    • Our central scenario is consistent with “choppy waters” for risk assets over the next 12 months. Consequently, we continue to argue for a defensive positioning in portfolios
    • We prefer short-duration fixed income, especially US Treasuries, which can outperform as recession bites. High-quality credits offer attractive carry, with solid balance sheets providing default protection
    • We remain positive on most EM asset classes given lower valuations, cautious investor positioning, a better macro outlook vs DMs, and the prospect of Fed cuts and further dollar weakness later in the year

    Macro Outlook

    • Data has held up better-than-feared but growth has been sluggish. In the West, we anticipate recession towards the end of the year, as corporates cut spending more aggressively amid weaker demand and reduced pricing power
    • Inflation is rolling over but will take time to reach levels that central banks are comfortable with. The services side of inflation is still proving sticky and may require a recession to kill off residual price pressures
    • Asia faces a much more benign inflation-growth mix. Although weaker external demand may weigh on trade activity, growth dynamics are supported by China’s reopening and leaves many nations in a ‘parallel world’

    Policy Outlook

    • We believe the Fed is at peak hawkishness, as it looks to balance sticky core inflation against banking sector concerns. However, we think Fed policy rates then ease at the turn of the year as recession bites
    • Fiscal policy may act as a drag, with some spending reductions likely following the debt ceiling suspension, but a 2010s-type austerity looks unlikely. This may help moderate the severity of a recession
    • Fiscal and monetary policy are set to remain accommodative in China, but any major new stimulus looks unlikely. In Japan, a measured normalisation of the BoJ’s yield curve control framework looks probable

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